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I wonder if Elon’s decision to show view count on tweets will in retrospect be the straw that broke the camel’s back… The most unexpected own-goal of the many (and I mean many) obvious own-goals.
Yes everyone felt that the quality of Twitter’s algorithmic feed was decaying, but for me at least, to actually watch my average view count per tweet decline over the last few months to a fraction of my following count is all the demotivating confirmation I needed that something has changed for the worse.
As with any social system, your creators have to invest their time and energy into the network by creating content, which in turn creates content for your viewers (and liquidity for your advertisers). But if you no longer believe in the ROI of that time, why keep investing? And nothing about Twitter’s new leadership makes you feel like the delicate balance one needs to strike in an algorithmic feed is going to be found once again.
That feeling of demotivation and decay creates the kindling for a new social product. Of course, there have been several startups betting on Twitter’s demise (BlueSky, Mastadon, Post News, etc). But I’ve been skeptical of these offerings, as talented as the founders are and well executed the products, because they didn’t introduce a new atomic unit.
Enter Threads. Same atomic unit, and yet it’s fascinating to me how alive it already feels by porting Instagram’s graph, an algorithmic feed that works, and of course leveraging Meta’s infrastructure and unlimited budget. If all other social products have to tackle the cold start problem, Instagram gave Threads a running start.
Exhibit A with Reels and suffice to say, these guys aren’t going to give up, which spells obvious trouble for Twitter.
To be clear, this doesn’t feel like an either/or situation that is going to be determined in the short term. Threads *is* a different graph than Twitter. And anyone who wants to can cross post easily. But certainly, my quick take is that much like Instagram has been chipping away at TikTok’s atomic unit and user time with Reels, Twitter’s decay just got accelerated by Threads. Time to start cross posting. :)
Time to start cross posting on Threads :)
Also, wondering is there has ever been a successful social product where the graph wasn't built organically.
Sarah, too early to say anything, I guess. But my first impression is that great. Few points.
1. I wonder what would Instagram creators - dominantly pop culture celebs - the ones who will come to populate the network initially - will post? Will that be something I will be interested in? Are they really the ones who "write" interesting content?
2. Or will the threads be a place for memes and jokes? Thats the experience I get as of now on the threads.
Will any of the two scenarios build something which could be Twitter killer?
I already feel like uninstalling the app. Keeping it to see how my hypothesis goes.
PS: Yes, Twitter is being destroyed by Elon. But I wonder if the network effects are so deep that they can ever be uprooted.